EFFECTS OF SENSITISATION AND EARLY TREATMENT ON FUTURE OUTBREAK OF LASSA FEVER IN NIGERIA

Abstract

We exploit the dynamics of Lassa fever model with sex structure of the human population with the rat population. The objectives of the research were to: (i) solve for the equilibrium point of the disease free of the model; (ii) obtain basic reproduction number R0, for the model; (iii) investigate local and global stability of the model; and (iv) analyze the sensitivity of parameters of the model. It was found that the disease free equilibrium point was locally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number (Ro) is less than one and unstable otherwise. The global stability of the model at disease free equilibrium was found. The analysis of the contribution of each parameter was performed using sensitivity analysis. All positive value parameters are in direct proportionality with the basic reproduction number Ro and all negative value parameters are inversely proportional to the basic reproduction number. Thus, increase in the values of all parameters with positive sensitivity value would increase Ro. Conversely, increase in the value of all parameters with negative sensitivity value would decrease Ro .