Abstract:
COVID-19 virus has spread everywhere in Africa and to the
36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory
(FCT), Abuja. The outbreak of COVID-19 in Lagos, since
February 27, 2020 has generated 158,506 confirmed
cases, including 1,969 deaths, as of 8 March 2021. In most
cases, community transmission is the prime factor in which
the viruses are fast spreading. Fortunately, there has never
been a reported incidence of COVID-19 infection on any
of the Nigerian university campuses. We assess the risk
of sustained transmission at the Bingham University of
Nigeria whenever the Coronavirus arrives on our university
campus. Risk assessment is achieved through data
describing the interaction amongst human-to-human and
used facilities on the campus. The data analysis involves
a fitted combination of 11 statistical models including inter
alia logistic model presented by equation (12). Parameter
estimation shows the probability of incidence rates and
percentage for coefficient of determination at each level of
individual interactions. The cubic regression model of Zankli
visitors, Zankli Staff and the inverse regression model of
Security Staff yield the highest coefficient of determination
with the percentages of 82%, 79% and 74% respectively.
This emphasizes the probability that an imported case
through the Zankli visitors, Zankli Staff and Security Staff
may cause COVID-19 outbreak on the University campus if
the Coronavirus protocols are not properly maintained
